It turns out that Salinas was never quite the reformer that many Americans and Mexicans wanted him to be. He came from the old Mexico – oligarchic, bloody and venal – and he never abandoned the establishment that created him. He shaped a Mexican economy that looked stronger than it really was, contributing to the crash of the peso just after he left office. And in an astonishing series of developments last week, his family name began to sink into a swamp of corruption. Salinas’s older brother was arrested for allegedly masterminding a political assassination last year, in which the victim was their sister’s former husband (chart). Beset by cover-up charges, Salinas, 46, withdrew his candidacy for the WTO job. Then he went on a bizarre hunger strike, demanding that the new government clear his name. Looking distraught, he told reporters: ““They have tried to blame me for errors that I have not committed.''
Salinas suspended his hunger strike after the government absolved him of any wrongdoing in another murder, the assassination last year of his political heir, Luis Donaldo Colosio. No one was taking back the other charges, however, and that was a remarkable break with political custom. The powerful families that dominate Mexican politics have always been considered untouchable, none more so than ex-presidents and their relatives, many of them notoriously corrupt. When his 48-year-old brother Raul was arrested, Salinas called the man he chose to succeed him, President Ernesto Zedillo. ““You can’t do this,’’ Salinas warned, according to sources familiar with the conversation. But Zedillo refused to play by the old rules. ““From now on,’’ he said, ““neither you nor I nor anyone else in this country will be above the law again.''
Mexicans were stunned by the news that Raul Salinas had been arrested for plotting the murder last September of Jose Francisco Ruiz Massieu, the secretary-general of the long-ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). Carlos Salinas called the charge ““absurd,’’ but the attorney general’s office claimed the evidence against Raul was ““overwhelming,’’ citing ““personal animosity’’ between the two men. Raul may have had other motives. Jose Francisco Ruiz was a moderate reformer; Raul Salinas was linked to PRI hard-liners allegedly implicated in the killing. And although Carlos Salinas had a reputation for personal integrity, Raul was thought to be involved in the kind of corruption that PRI ““dinosaurs’’ specialize in, including suspected ties to drug smugglers. Raul denies such charges. ““If [Raul] did order the murder,’’ said a party insider, ““it’s because he saw in Jose Francisco, a man he never really liked, a threat to all his cozy arrangements.''
Raul’s arrest quickly led to another shock. The killing of Jose Francisco Ruiz had been investigated initially by the victim’s brother Mario, a deputy attorney general under Salinas. Last week it turned out that Mario was under investigation for allegedly covering up the involvement of Raul Salinas. Mario denied it, but after a six-hour interrogation he abruptly left the country. He was arrested by U.S. Customs in the New York City area and charged with lying about the amount of currency he was carrying – $46,000, according to Customs.
Zedillo’s government also was looking into the murder of Colosio in March 1994, for which one shooter has already been convicted. Two weeks ago the authorities arrested an alleged second gunman, Othon Cortes, a PRI security guard. He denied the charge, but his arrest revived suspicions that the killing had been arranged by PRI conservatives opposed to Colosio’s agenda for political reform.
Carlos Salinas had a limited appetite for reform. He won the 1988 election through what most impartial observers believe to be widespread fraud. He talked about ““plural democracy’’ even as he maintained the PRI’s tight grip on national power. Although Salinas had the trappings of a U.S. education, he remained a Mexican traditionalist. He wanted democracy and free enterprise, but only as long as they didn’t threaten the ruling class.
Originally unenthusiastic about free trade, Salinas embraced NAFTA because it promised to attract the foreign investment that Mexico needed to modernize its economy. But most of the $50 billion that flowed into the country did not go to build factories or create jobs; it was invested in the volatile Mexican stock market, often in large, monopolistic companies run by PRI loyalists. Mexican exports could not keep up with the inflow of capital, creating a financial imbalance that undermined the peso. The Clinton administration knew exactly what was going on; U.S. agencies monitor Mexico more closely than just about any other country. But when the Americans warned Salinas’s government, the Mexicans ignored them. There wasn’t much Washington could do; interference from the United States would only have sabotaged the peso. Instead, Salinas spent his country’s foreign reserves to prop up the currency, leaving it to Zedillo to devalue, which he did last December in a clumsy manner, deepening the panic that ensued.
Now recriminations are heard in both countries. Republicans blame Clinton for the peso’s collapse and the $50 billion, U.S.-led bailout that followed. Last week the House of Representatives demanded that the administration hand over its files on Mexico’s economy. Zedillo has been hurt by his inept handling of the peso crisis. But the arrest of Raul Salinas, and the president’s insistence that no one is above the law anymore, revived his political fortunes. If he continues to promote the rule of law – and if he can dodge the bullets of potential assassins – Zedillo may yet advance the cause of both political and economic reform.
