Despite the worst carnage since the war of 1971, peace in the disputed territory of Kashmir may be at hand. Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has been desperately seeking a way out of the conflict. Rebuffed by his allies in China, Nawaz cut short a late June visit to Beijing and began looking elsewhere for backers. He begged for a meeting with Bill Clinton on July 4, just before the U.S. president headed for an Independence Day holiday. Nawaz was in such a hurry to see Clinton that he commandeered a regular Pakistan International Airways flight to New York and diverted it to Washington. “He came here and found a president who was very clear that there was not going to be any reward for what they had done,” says a senior U.S. administration official. “What he got was, here’s what you need to do.” Clinton’s demand: pull the invaders out of Indian territory.
Nawaz promised to withdraw. U.S. officials say pressure from China was critical. “They weren’t going to stand behind [Nawaz] as he precipitated a broad-scale conventional–or worse–conflict,” says the U.S. official. But as of late last week, with no sign yet of a pullout, it was not clear Nawaz is ready or able to deliver on his word. “There is a real stiff resistance being put up by the enemy,” said Indian Army Col. Bikram Singh. “It is not a cakewalk.”
The road to peace may well be drenched in more blood. The Indians are not about to put down their arms based on a Pakistani promise. Shortly after Nawaz’s return to Islamabad last week, Pakistan announced that it will take “concrete steps” soon to implement the agreement with Clinton. But Pakistan still denies its regular troops are even fighting in India–an assertion disputed by military analysts and Western governments alike. Nawaz has promised to “request” that the Kashmiri nationalist guerrillas withdraw. In response, the Indians say they won’t stop their attacks until the last guerrilla has left Indian soil. “They’ll have to find their own way out,” says Foreign Ministry official Raminder Singh Jassal. “After the casualties we have taken,” adds retired Lt. Gen. Satish Nambiar, who heads a military think tank in New Delhi, “I can’t see our Army standing back and letting them withdraw under a ceasefire.”
The Americans didn’t offer Nawaz much in return for his peace deal. They told him that he must not only withdraw the intruders but also resume diplomatic talks begun by Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s historic New Delhi-to-Lahore bus ride in March. In return, Clinton vaguely promised to visit Pakistan if the withdrawal goes ahead and Islamabad signs the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. But he offered no mediation, rebuffing Pakistan’s effort to counterbalance India’s military strength by internationalizing the search for a solution. Privately, State Department officials say Clinton doesn’t want to get any more involved in the Kashmir mess.
That leaves Nawaz with no outside help, and big trouble at home. Noisy Islamic demonstrators took to the streets of Islamabad protesting the peace deal, burning Nawaz’s image along with Indian and American flags. The Kashmiri guerrillas were even more adamant. Sayed Salahuddin, chief of the guerrillas’ United Jihad Council, called Nawaz’s withdrawal offer “a stab in the back” and vowed that the militants would continue to fight “to the last drop of our blood.” Nawaz has “created a mess for himself,” says the senior Clinton administration official. “I hope that what he heard–not only from here but also from the Chinese and British–is that of the no good options, persevering with this is the worst.”
For now, Nawaz still has the backing of Pakistan’s Army. Just before the Clinton meeting, the powerful Army chief, Gen. Parvez Musharraf, announced that Nawaz has “the full support” of the military. Some 2,000 men, mainly Pakistani troops mixed with a few hundred Kashmiri fighters, are clinging to the heights under increasingly savage Indian land and air attacks. If the Pakistani Army withdraws its men, the militants, with dwindling food and ammunition, would probably hold out only for a few days. Even now the Indians, using superior numbers of men and artillery, as well as advanced Russian MiG and French Mirage fighter bombers, are rapidly recapturing the heights they lost two months ago. Western military analysts in Pakistan believe that Gen. Musharraf, a keen poker player, has decided to fold his cards.
Much could still go wrong. Pakistani fighters and guerrillas can sneak back home across the border under cover of darkness. But a brutal Indian assault could provoke another escalation of fighting. Even as they withdraw, the Pakistanis will keep up the fiction that they have no troops in India. One day soon, that may be true. At that point, the diplomacy will have to start in earnest again. “This encounter has made me very, very cynical,” says the veteran Lt. Gen. Nambiar. “I’m not the only Indian who will find it very difficult to trust the Pakistanis.” Those obscure spots on Kashmir’s map will be remembered for a long time to come.
