This would redound in favor of Japan’s opposition leader, Ichiro Ozawa, if he were not seen as equally inept. Though Ozawa’s Democratic Party won a landslide victory in last month’s parliamentary by-elections, Ozawa is not a clear front runner himself. According to a recent opinion poll by Mainichi Shimbun, Ozawa bests Fukuda by a mere four points. Experts say Ozawa has hurt his standing with hard-line tactics he’s used against Fukuda—such as voting down a string of nominees for the Bank of Japan’s governor post—and his inability to present convincing alternatives to Fukuda’s policies. A staggering 63 percent of Japanese say they support neither Ozawa nor Fukuda.
The future, however, may be a bit brighter, and a lot more action-packed. The governing party is so desperate to survive that it’s doing all it can to stall general elections. The Democrats’ best bet, says political analyst Takashi Uesugi, is to play on internal policy differences in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), casting doubt on its ability to reform before the vote.
Not that Ozawa is sure to win it. Waiting in the wings behind Fukuda are Taro Aso, the former foreign minister, and Yuriko Koike, Japan’s first female Defense minister—two popular and charismatic LDP politicians who could help rescue their party’s electoral fortunes if their boss steps down. And a growing number of parliamentarians are starting to form bipartisan alliances, in possible anticipation of party realignment in the near future. One of these alliances has even enlisted the wildly popular Junichiro Koizumi, an LDP maverick who resigned as prime minister in 2006, as an adviser, bringing him back into the public eye after months of seclusion. His re-entry hints that a political earthquake may be in the offing. “Anything can happen now,” says Atsuo Ito, a Tokyo political analyst. One way or another, Japan’s in for a tumultuous ride.
