Line: Dayton -4, Total: 127 (current NCAA Tournament point spreads and totals)
Boise State Record: 25-8 ATS: 19-11 OVER/UNDER: 11-10 Overview: Boise State is better known for football and its odd-colored home field, but the Broncos’ basketball squad makes a case to be paid attention to as well. They finished the season on a 15-2 SU run, losing to Wyoming in the Mountain West semifinals. Bettors may be even more impressed than the selection committee, as the team missed the money just three times in that final 17-game stretch. Backing the Broncos on the road is little cause for concern, as they are 10-4 ATS away from home this season. They are also a stout 7-2 as underdogs. They allow just 60.3 points per game, 35th best in the nation.
Team page: Boise State
Dayton Record : 25-7 ATS: 16-14 OVER/UNDER: 14-11-1 Overview: While Dayton is being forced to play in the opening round, at least the game is in its home arena, where the Flyers are 16-0 straight up this season and have covered eight of their last 11 games. They did some damage is last year’s Big Dance, winning as underdogs vs. Ohio State, Syracuse and Stanford, before bowing out to Florida in the Elite Eight (although they covered +10.5 in the 62-52 loss to the Gators).
Team page: Dayton
Handicapping tools: Power ratings | ATS standings
The Linemakers’ lean: We expect both teams to defend well and get into half-court offenses, which will create a slow pace and help this game stay UNDER the total of 127. Based on our power ratings, these teams are of equal strength, so the point spread is close to where it should be once Dayton’s home-court advantage is factored in. Still, if we can get +4.5 with Boise State, we’ll take the points. Boise State has been resilient on the road this season. The lean is on the UNDER, with a smaller opinion on Boise State should we get the line we’re looking for.
NCAA Tournament bracket: Bracket Game | Printable bracket
Win a seat at the SuperContest: Register for Satellite Series
