His three films following 1992’s “Malcolm X” flopped, and his most recent film, “Girl 6,” got some of the worst reviews of his career. His dream project, a movie about baseball legend Jackie Robinson starring Denzel Washington, was dropped by Turner Pictures over budget disputes; so far, he hasn’t found another studio willing to give him the $35 million budget he wants. He’s ended his seven-year deal with Universal and has no studio he can call home. His solution? An independently financed fiction film about the Million Man March that he’s making for just $2 milliona budget that has made industry insiders wonder if his days at the Hollywood trough are over. After years of doing the right thing, what is Spike Lee doing wrong?

Now no one expects Lee’s films to be blockbusters. And other serious black filmmakers, like Charles Burnett (“The Glass Shield”) and Carl Franklin (“Devil in a Blue Dress”), have also fared poorly at the box office. But until “Malcolm X,” Lee’s movies were all profitable. “Do the Right Thing” (1989) cost $6.5 million and earned $28 million; “Jungle Fever” (1991) cost $14 million and made $33 million. Those numbers ensured that studio chiefs would keep rolling the dice on Lee’s projects. But the well-publicized battles between Lee and Warner Bros. over the $35 million budget of “Malcolm X” changed Hollywood’s view of him. ““Malcolm’ was the high and low of Spike’s career,” said an industry source, referring to the film’s $48 million gross. “[He] got a lot of attention, but in the end, all the attention didn’t get people in the movie seats.” The budgets for his next three films were lower but so were the receipts: “Crooklyn” (1994) made $13.6 million and “Clockers” (1995) grossed $13 million; so far, “Girl 6” has earned only $4 million.

That precipitous drop has called his once savvy commercial instincts into question. Lee’s earlier films shrewdly courted controversy to maximize profit, but his recent efforts have been much less discerning. “Crooklyn” was a period piece with no stars, “Clockers” was a ‘hood film released when audiences were fed up with them. And the only star draws of “Girl 6” were cameos by overexposed personalities (Madonna, Quentin Tarantino). Movie critic Roger Ebert compares Lee with Woody Allen, whose last six films have each grossed less than $14 million despite his exalted status among critics. Yet “[Allen] has a very realistic idea of the probable size of his audience, and he budgets his films accordingly.” (Lee declined several times to be interviewed for this story.) Ironically, what makes Spike Lee a critics’ darling–his striking, fiercely personal vision–may be exactly what’s turning off young black moviegoers, who propelled movies like Martin Lawrence’s recent “A Thin Line Between Love and Hate” to a $9.3 million opening weekend. Black films like “Dead Presidents,” “Friday” and “Higher Learning” cast rappers or comedians in major roles, relied on hip-hop/R&B soundtracks and pulled in crowds. Lee’s use of trained actors and jazzy scores makes him seem out of touch with young audiences, and his ticket sales suffer.

Not that anyone is writing Lee’s obituary yet. The Million Man March film has been picked up by Columbia. And Tri-Star wants him to direct “Two Face,” a comedy about a white schizophrenic racist by day, intellectual by night–for which they hope to attract an A-list star. So even though his hot streak has cooled, Spike Lee will keep right on shooting. Let’s just hope he starts hitting his shots again.