Problem No. 1: he can’t count on all his colleagues in the Social Democratic Party. Schroder has never been popular with the SPD’s far left, which much preferred ex-party chairman and finance minister Oskar Lafontaine. Schroder got rid of Lafontaine early in his administration. Leftists have balked at supporting the Chancellor’s budget-cutting package. “We want to make clear that we will not vote for the reforms in parliament unless the cutbacks are spread to everybody’s shoulders,” declared Detlev von Larcher, although some of his colleagues have now softened their stance. The Schroder camp is also nervous about Lafontaine’s book, due out in October. It is expected to be witheringly critical of the chancellor.
Problem No. 2: rumors that party regulars are planning to force Schroder from office to cut their losses, and put Defense Minister Rudolf Scharping in his place. Farfetched? Probably, although the daily Die Welt reported that Schroder was sufficiently angered by reports that Scharping had been quietly advertising his availability that he threatened to dump his defense minister. Scharping denied the report–and the existence of any quarrel.
Then there’s the matter of the Christian Democrats and the Bundesrat. Under Helmut Kohl, the SPD could block Kohl’s proposals because the party dominated the upper chamber of parliament. In the current election cycle, though, the SPD is losing control of the Bundesrat. The question is what the CDU will do: capitalize on popular discontent and paralyze reform? At times, the CDU leadership seems to tilt in that direction. But it would be an unconvincing–and risky–maneuver for a party that has long preached fiscal discipline. CDU leaders say they’d be willing to compromise with the Social Democrats to assemble a package they both can accept. Under this scenario, the SPD and CDU could develop what some are calling a de facto grand coalition. It’s not clear where this would leave the current SPD-Greens coalition. And that could be a problem, too.
