It’s happened before. After releasing her from six years of confinement in 1995, the generals continued to harass Suu Kyi’s party and jail its members. Will things be different this time? Not likely, though the two sides have been holding secret “confidence-building” talks since October 2000. Last week, in an unprecedented move, the junta let dozens of foreign journalists into Rangoon to cover the possible release. This is an intriguing political moment in Burma. Last month the government announced that it had arrested four relatives of retired junta leader Gen. Ne Win for plotting a coup. While the alleged plot has been met with skepticism, the arrests could mean that the generals no longer feel beholden to the regime’s old-school autocratic rulers. Still, the real proof of change will come only with the release of the hundreds of other political prisoners from Suu Kyi’s party, including more than two dozen elected members of Parliament. That move could conceivably lead to the formation of a national reconciliation committee and a timetable for new elections. Are the generals willing to leave the political scene? That’s the hope. But as one Westerner in the region says, “Never, ever underestimate the capacity of those people to disappoint.”
