That’s just a two-point swing from pre-convention levels, but an eight-point rise from late June. In a four-way race including Ralph Nader and Pat Buchanan, Green Party candidate Nader wins 5 percent and Reform candidate Buchanan one percent. In a two-way contest, Bush leads Gore by a 52-43 percent margin.
Still, Bush emerges from the convention in a somewhat vulnerable position. His 11-point margin is within range of a standard post-convention bounce. A strong showing by Gore in Los Angeles could close the gap and make for a very tight race going into September.
The Philadelphia gathering appears to have been more successful than other recent conventions in swaying voters. Even though a majority (59 percent) say they watched little or none of the convention, nearly half of those surveyed say they came away with a more favorable opinion of the Republican party.
Bush’s speech, in particular, proved a winner, drawing both an audience and positive response. About half (49 percent) of those polled say they watched all or part of the Thursday night address, and a similar number (47 percent) say they have a more favorable impression of the candidate based on what they saw or heard of the speech. A full 37 percent say the speech made them more likely to support the Republican ticket. Only 11 percent of voters were turned off by the speech, and just 7 percent say they are less likely to vote Republican because of it.
The convention proceedings also reinforced previous perceptions of Bush as a strong and ethical leader. More than seven out of ten voters (72 percent) say Bush has strong leadership qualities, and three out of four see Bush as intelligent and well informed. Voters also say they think Bush would do a better job than Gore on upholding moral values (53 percent to 30 percent), national defense (55 to 30), reducing crime (49 to 33), taxes (50 to 36) and foreign policy (48 to 37). But on the important issue of the economy, Bush and Gore are about even, and on the question of prescription drug plans Gore leads, 45 percent to 40.
