Why the striking sense of calm in Russia? Weakness, for one. Moscow could have done nothing to prevent Washington from pulling out–its threats thus far of installing multiple warheads on existing missiles have failed to persuade the United States to be more cooperative. More important, the recent White House proposals for sharp cuts in offensive arms could save the Kremlin desperately needed cash, which it could use to gear up for more proximate threats–the militant Islamic rebellion in Chechnya, for instance. In return for Moscow’s mild-mannered response on missile defense, Washington might lead a campaign to provide Russia with debt relief, and could also aid its bid to join the World Trade Organization or invite wider Russian participation in NATO decision making.“Putin is after something bigger [than the ABM treaty],” says a senior U.S. administration official. “He’s after a serious strategic relationship with the U.S.”
Yet scrapping the treaty creates political problems for Washington elsewhere–especially across the Pacific. China’s deterrent of a mere 20 or so ICBMs is potentially threatened by a viable missile defense system. And China, unlike Russia, could mount a missile-building drive that might provoke a new arms race with nuclear-armed India and Pakistan. To forestall just that, Bush called Chinese President Jiang Zemin last week, and the two agreed to schedule high-level talks soon.
Still, does national missile defense make sense for the United States? A missile shield is still a theoretical abstraction–the latest test of a a booster rocket failed last week. And it’s becoming increasingly clear to some analysts that the big danger to America these days is not missiles, which have a return address. It’s suitcase bombs and biological agents. And even while Bush hints at rewarding Russia on the ABM issue, Moscow still refuses to cooperate fully on non-proliferation matters. The danger for Bush is that with his attention–and budgetary dollars–focused on the skies above, the real threat to Americans could arrive by other means.
