Naturally, the Karavayevs are gambling. Who can be sure when Irina will give birth? But the baby bonus is no scam. Backed at the highest level in the republic–by Sarah Nazarbayeva, the wife of Kazakhstan’s autocratic president–the baby campaign is a desperate response to an alarming plunge in the national population. Since the Central Asian nation became independent in the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, its population has dropped by 11.5 percent, to 14.9 million, a tiny number for a nation about as big as Western Europe. And the birthrate has dropped by 70 percent. “We need more population, and the economic situation is one reason why women aren’t having babies,” says Erkin Kaliev, the computer-shop owner leading the drive to raise the birthrate–at least for a day. “This is not a large sum, but… the main thing is to start people thinking about having a family.”
Business leaders say the need for a sustained burst of procreative energy is obvious. During the Soviet period, ethnic Russians led the government, ran the factories and provided much of the skilled labor. But many of these non-Kazakhs emigrated in the early post-Soviet period. And plenty of those who stayed were removed from their positions in the government’s unofficial policy of “Kazakhization.” With few Kazakhs qualified to do public-service work, posts are now often filled by the mediocre. Private business fares no better.
But are babies the answer? Paul Demeny, a demographic expert with the New York-based Population Council, says it’s folly to try to reverse the declining birthrate because, like their people elsewhere, Kazakhs simply aren’t interested in having large families. “What they need to do is make sure that laws are impartially administered and that the economy is on the right track.”
While there is no telling how many women have been persuaded by the campaign to get pregnant, it seems to be catching on. In interviews last week, women due to give birth around Jan. 1 seemed embarrassed to concede that they had timed their pregnancies with the scheme in mind. Yet all were eager to collect if they qualified. “I don’t have work, my husband doesn’t have work, so this money, of course, would help,” said Tatiana Semenchuk, 24, due to give birth on Jan. 1. But she insisted money wasn’t her only reason. “Without children, without a future, what is life?” Kazakhstan’s leaders hope that sentiment spreads.
